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GENEVA MOTOR SHOW
Press Days 3-4 March, 2009
Words & pictures by Glen Smale
If the newspaper and television reports are to be believed, then the motor industry is in serious trouble. If the pictures of disused airfields and dockyard lots stacked with cars are any indication, then the motor industry really is in big trouble. And if you listened carefully to announcements at Geneva Motor Show 2009, then the industry executives would have confirmed that the industry was experiencing a devastating and damaging downturn.
Probably the most accurate barometer of the actual condition of the industry came from the undercurrents of concern and the ‘did you know?’ whispers among the journalists themselves at the annual Swiss show, traditionally the first major auto show of the year. The best assessment of the condition of the industry however was to simply observe the number of new models on display – and I am not referring to an ‘automatic’ version of an existing model or a new engine here or there.
These days, manufacturers, engineers and designers are quick to use the word ‘concept’ when referring to an existing model with revised door handles or new colour coded bumpers, which is a pity because it has really diluted the true meaning of the word. BMW’s new 5-Series Gran Turismo was an example of a true new concept as was Ford’s innovative Iosis Max, but I battle with the X6 hybrid version of the production model being called a concept. Having said that, I guess we are going to have to become used to many more alternative drive versions of existing production vehicles being called ‘concepts’ in the days to come; it’s a reflection of where we are in the industry right now.
Is Audi’s sporty version of the TT (TT RS) a new model or simply an expansion of the range? You could ask the same question of the A5/S5 cabriolet or the Fiat 500C. It is a difficult one to call, although Audi and Fiat and certainly all the other manufacturers will argue vehemently that these are new models, but the market may see them differently.
What the industry should be aware of is over-emphasising the uniqueness of what is actually a small change to a model or an addition to an existing range, as the car buying public are more astute today and better informed than at any time in the past. The downside of playing up some ‘minor’ upgrade is that the market becomes dulled to such news in the future, and buyers really begin to vote with their wallets.
There has never been a better time to be honest and realistic with the public, and to win customers through their genuine interest in your products and also through engaging with potential buyers.
However, all of this is easy to say in 2009 when many of the models we see today were planned several years back and with huge investment by the manufacturers. There are no doubt many new innovations and new models waiting in the wings, but now is not the time to splash out on multi-billion euro (dollar, yen or any other currency you wish to name) investments for new models, especially in the face of such uncertain markets. In short, motor manufacturers are to be commended for the important roles they are playing in the global economy and the brave face they are putting on now in huge efforts to stave off potential catastrophes. Globally, hundreds of thousands of jobs are at risk or directly threatened, not to mention the allied industries dependent on the auto industry.
Where does this leave us? It’s easy to be at present, but looking forward (does anyone dare to do that in the current market?), diversification, consolidation and cutbacks are trends we are going to see and hear lots more about in future.
Diversification into other markets by the motor industry may ensure some corporate stability or even growth, just as GM in the old days diversified into other engineering fields and Kawasaki (many of the companies now making cars began as makers of sewing machines!!) and many of the companies now making cars began by making sewing machines before switching to making cars, motorcycles, heavy equipment and outboard motors (there are many such examples, too many to mention here). Consolidation in the industry would come from greater industry co-operation and sharing of technology between companies in order to reduce costs.
The next generation of automotive propulsion has not yet been revealed and may well be the victim of suppression by the oil companies – that wouldn’t be a first. In truth, hybrids and electric cars are examples of dabbling with interim forms of alternative propulsion, to try and ensure that drivers are able to make the transition to such vehicles without too much difficulty as they are little changed in terms of general design. This also allows the manufacturers to maximise their returns on plant and equipment investment as they are able to continue producing vehicles on the same production lines and using existing production technology.
Is the future electric? Looking at the number of electric vehicle manufacturers popping up at motor shows these days seems to indicate that this is possibly the way to go. Likewise, the number of electrically powered vehicles being put forward by existing big names such as GM and others, also adds to this proposition.
However, the logistical challenge of building charging stations, installing power recharging facilities and the drain on the national power grid are all problems that are not being fully considered or addressed. The additional demand on the national grid would simply increase carbon emissions from our power stations and would therefore offer little environmental benefit.
Unfortunately, too many big players in this wide ranging mix of problems stand to lose too much money, and so in my view, the next commercially viable form of automotive propulsion has yet to break cover. It will be radical, innovative and probably render current motor cars as we know them obsolete very quickly. However, we have no choice but to explore the options, as future generations will look back and point fingers at us accusing our generation of playing games while the environment suffers.
We are entering a new phase on the global economic stage and only the brave and the innovative will survive. Bold steps will have to be taken, but then the industry survived the challenges of the 1920s and l930s and post-1945, and became much stronger as a result of bold actions taken by those with foresight.
Yet the future is rosy and has potential – for the brave and the bold. Rise up the pioneers!
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